Fake Polls, “Demoralization Operations,” And The 2026 Elections – A New Conversation With Tom Bonier
Greetings all. Sending along a recording of the discussion I had today with our good friend and data guy Tom Bonier. This episode is a wide-ranging and timely look at the growing problem of partisan and illicit actors manipulating polling and the prediction markets and our understanding of our elections themselves. Understanding how polling and prediction markets can be manipulated to influence election outcomes is a central part of our work at in our evolving battlefield project, and has been central to Hopium’s work since we launched in March of 2023.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/winning-in-a-evolving-political-battlefield
The aggressive gaming/manipulation of polling for partisan ends began in earnest in 2022 with the successful effort by right-wing entities to create the false impression that a red wave was coming. These “flood the zone” tactics expanded in the 2024 cycle; were deployed again in the NJ Gov’s race in 2025; and in the Hungarian election earlier this year.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/fake-polls-demoralization-operations
Enjoy the episode, share our conversation with others, and keep working hard everyone - Simon
Greetings all. Sending along a recording of the discussion I had today with our good friend and data guy Tom Bonier. This episode is a wide-ranging and timely look at the growing problem of partisan and illicit actors manipulating polling and the prediction markets and our understanding of our elections themselves. Understanding how polling and prediction markets can be manipulated to influence election outcomes is a central part of our work at in our evolving battlefield project, and has been central to Hopium’s work since we launched in March of 2023.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/winning-in-a-evolving-political-battlefield
The aggressive gaming/manipulation of polling for partisan ends began in earnest in 2022 with the successful effort by right-wing entities to create the false impression that a red wave was coming. These “flood the zone” tactics expanded in the 2024 cycle; were deployed again in the NJ Gov’s race in 2025; and in the Hungarian election earlier this year.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/fake-polls-demoralization-operations
Enjoy the episode, share our conversation with others, and keep working hard everyone – Simon
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